...sales will fall by 31.9% for Chrysler, 31.7% for GM, 31.5% for Toyota, 27.2% for Nissan, 19% for Ford and 18.1% for Hyundai.No comment on why the numbers for GM and Chrysler were so bad compared to the Ford prediction. Then the actual sales numbers were released one by one. Here are the percent differences from a year ago:
- GM: 33.4% drop
- Chrysler: 41.9% drop
- Ford: 10.7% drop
We are now six months into the failed Auto Bailout Era. Looking at the industry's four biggest companies, it has become clear that Ford is on the rise, General Motors continues to slip badly, Chrysler is fading into minor-player status, and Toyota's ongoing struggles continue.
In May, after April's sales results came out, two Associated Press writers noted Ford's ascendancy and uniquely hinted at its likely basis:
Detroit’s Big Three is becoming Ford and the other two.
While its rivals stay afloat with billions in government aid, Ford grabbed a bigger slice of the American car market in April .....
..... Most of ..... (Ford's) gains came at the expense of General Motors and Chrysler, which unlike Ford are dependent on federal help.
Other than that, there has been virtually no press recognition of what has to be seen as the most likely reason for the shift: Enough consumers to matter are continuing to shun the unsuccessfully bailed-out.
Here's the telliung graphic ("Source Data: Wall Street Journal monthly Auto Sales Chart for June 2009 and June 2008; USA Today for Dec. 2008 and Dec. 2007; Web-Archived WSJ Auto Sales Chart for June 2007"): (click for higher-resolution)
Note that Ford is eating away at market share. Later, NewsBusters had a follow-up: Press Continues to Ignore the Public’s Shunning of Bailed-out GM and Chrysler, Part 2: Telling Details.
Quick:
- Which company sold the most light trucks in the U.S. in June?
- Which company came in at Number 9 in car sales in June, down from Number 7 a year ago?
- Aren't smaller players in the auto industry obviously gaining ground on the big guys because of their small, fuel-efficient cars?
If you don't know the answers to these questions, it's because the press has been doing a poor job of covering what's really been going on in the industry since the Era of the (Failed) Auto Company Bailouts began in December of last year.
Yes it has. The answer, however, lies in this graphic from the Wall Street Journal:
Tom Blumer then goes on to answer his own 3 questions:
The answers to the three questions are as follows:
- (in white on blue above) In June, Ford sold more light trucks than General Motors for the first in many, many years. Just a year ago, GM had a lead on Ford of over 50%.
- (in black on yellow) In June, Chrysler was the Number 9 seller of cars in the U.S. Even a year ago, it was only Number 7, miles behind the top five in the category, and even badly trailing Hyundai. In the past year, Kia has passed Chrysler and established a bit of distance. VW outsold Chrysler during June, for the first time in probably forever -- and remember that this was a month when the 25% of dealers that were terminated had going-out-of-business deals going. It seems more than a little likely that BMW will catch Chrysler in the coming months.
- (in white on green, for irony) While many of the larger makers have focused their efforts on smaller cars, the rest of the pack, contrary to established non-wisdom, has made significant inroads in generally higher-profit light trucks. While light truck sales at the six biggest players are off over 25% in the past year, the smaller players are down less than 9%.
If the establishment press was doing its job covering the industry, the first two items would be widely-known stories. The third, though a bit less obvious, certainly throws into doubt the conventional wisdom that going small is the ticket to success.
Any reader of this blog shouldn't be surprised by the above, except maybe the level of liberal bias in the media. I wrote this post all the way back on June 8: The Result Of The Govt Bailout Of GM, Chrysler: Americans are buying Fords. In that post, I had this graphic of how Ford's market share is increasing while their incentives are decreasing, a curious tend that can only be explained by consumer bias away from nationalized auto makers and toward the one remaining private domestic company:
I shared my sentiments regarding this situation in that prior post, and I hold to them today. As a loyal GM customer for more than 24 years now, I can firmly say that I will not buy a vehicle from Government Motors. Nor will I buy from Chrysler, but that won't be a loss since I've never bought one. I've never bought a Ford wither, but that is exactly where I will go should everything stay the course. How justified am I in my assumption that a statistically significant chunk of the consumer population feels the same as I?




What? Ford, a staunch union shop, getting your praises? But I thought only non-union and right-to-work-for-less States were allowed to get any positive press from the Right? Maybe there is hope!
ReplyDelete...btw, I own two Fords. Go Ford! Buy union!
ReplyDeletea car is a tool. i don't see where brand loyalty is any part of a rational buying decision.
ReplyDeleteOn my commute home today, a bit on NPR noted that Ford's marketing beat GM's hands down. GM has been burdened by excessive products and blurred distinctions between lines. In fact, I'm baffled why they want to keep GMC, which merely offers Chevrolet look-alikes, versus Pontiac, which was, at least, stylishly different from the other badges.
ReplyDeleteI think, however, the gains Ford has made has more to do with they're not in bankruptcy than whether they took government money or not. GM and Chrylser have slashed dealer networks (which I don't see as making any difference to them) and they're in bankruptcy. Simply, consumers don't have any confidence in being able to get service for their products if they buy them. Ford's dealer network is intact, however, and they're not in bankruptcy with an uncertain (at least perceptively) future.
As for Toyota, well, that implies to me the domestic automakers weren't so far off the mark afterall. It also supports my contention the whole automaker crisis is collateral damage from the Wall Street fiasco.
@Anonymous #3:
Brand loyalty may not be rational, but it plays a part based on whether you had a good product or not and whether your buying and servicing experience was good or not. I looked at buying a Saturn Vue hybrid but got treated like crap by the dealership, so they lost a sale. I've owned 2 Hyandais, one I loved and one I'm ok with, largely because of the dealership experience. But I bought Hyundais both times because they were less expensive for the features than the Big 3's products.
...you mean, unions aren't to blame afterall? That wrecks a lot fun, if you know what I mean.
ReplyDeleteI was always a Dodge guy, in my head. Had a Cavalier once. Hated it.
ReplyDeleteUsed to drive a Taurus, too. That car was pretty OK. But will anything EVER top my 84 Chevy Celebrity? No. Clearly the answer is no.
--Nick
www.RightMichigan.com